Republican challenger Christine Drazan leads Democratic Governor Tina Kotek by two points, 45% to 43%, according to a DHM Research poll of 600 likely Oregon voters conducted Sept. 11.
Poll Signals Shift
The survey, commissioned by business‑backed group Grow Oregon, shows Drazan’s lead sits within the poll’s 4‑point margin of error, giving the GOP fresh hope of flipping the governor’s mansion in a state that has voted Democratic since 1986.
“This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it,” Drazan campaign strategist Trey Rosser told the Oregon Journalism Project.
Despite the optimism, Drazan faces steep odds; Kotek defeated her in 2022, 47% to 43.5%, while independent Betsy Johnson captured nearly 9% of the vote.
The GOP hopes Green Party candidate Brett Smith will siphon left‑leaning Portland voters angry with the Democratic establishment, potentially widening Drazan’s advantage in a divided Democratic field.
Nearly 60% of respondents disapprove of Kotek’s job performance, compared with 37% who approve, according to the Oregon Journalism Project, and 59% say the state is headed in the wrong direction.
Affordability tops voter concerns, with 87% calling it extremely or very important, followed by K‑12 education at 85% and housing affordability at 78%; taxes (77%) and crime (73%) also rank high, while data centers sit at 50%.
Kotek has faced criticism over a proposed “Office of the First Spouse” for her wife Aimee Kotek Wilson, which she abandoned after public scrutiny, and over stalled progress on her 2022 housing pledge to build 36,000 units annually, a target the state continues to miss, The Daily Wire reported.
The Cook Political Report rates the Oregon governor’s race as lean Democrat.
