The Trump administration restored CDC crime data, fixing a major error and exposing ongoing data gaps at the FBI and DOJ.
Getting the CDC Back in Line
A 2013 National Academies of Sciences report, co‑sponsored by the CDC, placed defensive gun uses between 500,000 and 3 million annually based on national surveys, with the lower figure limited to handgun incidents.
The CDC had listed a range of 60,000 to 2.5 million, a figure that did not match the NAS estimates.
Gun control advocates pressured the CDC to delete the defensive‑gun‑use discussion, a move documented in emails obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, according to the request’s records.
By May 2022 the CDC removed the material, keeping it offline until the Trump administration restored the original post in July 2026, correcting the lower bound from 60,000 to 500,000 to align with the survey data.
Critics such as The Trace labeled the restoration an “inflated claim,” but the correction now reflects the lower end of the NAS survey range.
FBI Doubles Down on Data Errors
The FBI defines an active shooter as anyone actively killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area, a definition that includes single‑person shootings and mass events but excludes crimes such as robberies or drug‑turf fights.
Former DOJ senior adviser John R. Lott Jr. found that the FBI missed or misidentified many cases where armed civilians stopped attacks, a problem he documented during his tenure from 2020‑2021.
CPRC data show 615 active‑shooter incidents from 2014‑2025, with armed citizens stopping 225, or 36.6 percent, compared with the FBI’s count of 16 stops out of 408 incidents, about 4 percent.
When the analysis is limited to jurisdictions where lawful carry is permitted, the CPRC estimates a 52.9 percent success rate, indicating that armed civilians prevent the majority of attacks in those areas.
The FBI has ignored repeated requests from outlets such as the Washington Post and Washington Times for clarification, replying that its data “provide a baseline understanding” rather than a comprehensive count.
Researchers from Texas State University contested two of CPRC’s cases, prompting Lott’s team to cite 17 additional incidents that the FBI included despite identical circumstances, underscoring the pattern of omissions.
These data gaps make it impossible to dismiss the undercount as accidental, especially as the FBI has not corrected earlier errors raised by Lott.
John R. Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior adviser for research and statistics at the U.S. Department of Justice, oversees the CPRC’s updated case list.
