U.S. employers will face a 9.5% jump in health care costs in 2027, pushing the average expense above $19,000 per employee.
Cost Projections Show Sharp Rise
Aon’s August 20 statement projects the average per‑employee cost to climb to $19,300, marking the fourth consecutive year of near‑double‑digit growth.
Workers will shoulder nearly $5,300 in 2026, up 7.9% from 2025, as payroll contributions and out‑of‑pocket spending rise.
Aon based the forecast on data from more than 1,100 U.S. employers covering 7.9 million workers and $135 billion in 2026 health spending.
Rising utilization, higher chronic disease rates, and greater prescription drug use drive the surge, Aon said.
Specialty medicines, especially GLP‑1 therapies for heart disease, sleep apnea and chronic kidney disease, add significant cost pressure.
“Rising health care costs become much more than a budgeting challenge and influence organizational decisions from benefits strategy to workforce planning,” said Mike Pasterick, North America health solutions leader for Aon.
“Leaders face pressure to keep benefits affordable while investing in talent attraction and retention,” he added.
PwC’s June analysis echoed the trend, forecasting a 9% increase in commercial health plan costs in 2027, the highest trend in 17 years.
Around 70% of health plans identified provider AI tools as a top‑three cost driver, PwC reported.
Other factors include inflation‑driven provider reimbursement, provider consolidation, greater use of specialty and behavioral health services, and out‑of‑network payment disputes under the No Surprises Act.
