Charles Payne and EJ Antoni called the September jobs report disappointing, noting only 29,000 jobs added and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, which pushed the Fed’s rate‑hike prospects off the table.
Key Findings of the September 2026 Jobs Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 29,000 nonfarm payroll gains, well below the 90,000 economists expected, according to LSEG.
Unemployment climbed to 4.2%, surpassing the 4.1% forecast, while revisions cut prior months’ gains by 60,000 jobs, turning July into a 10,000‑job loss and August into a 29,000‑job gain.
Sector Breakdown
Private payrolls rose 46,000, missing the 85,000 estimate, after August’s 127,000 gain was revised down to 89,000.
Government payrolls fell 17,000, with state and local education shedding 16,000 jobs, while manufacturing added 9,000, just shy of the 10,000 expectation.
Healthcare contributed 16,700 jobs, led by ambulatory services and hospitals, but nursing and residential care lost 8,700 positions, a slower pace than the prior 12‑month average of 33,000.
Construction added 11,000 jobs, near the 10,000 monthly average, while financial activities slipped 7,000, leaving the sector 129,000 jobs below its May 2025 peak.
Expert Reactions
Vanguard economist Adam Schickling said the labor market remains resilient but not accelerating, with subdued hiring and low layoffs, producing mixed payroll signals.
Schickling added that the data bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to stay patient, as the labor market shows little strengthening.
JPMorgan strategist Phil Camporeale noted that weaker job creation, negative prior revisions and soft wage growth confirm the labor market is not fueling inflation.
Implications for Interest Rates
The jobs numbers increase the likelihood that the Fed will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%‑4% in its late‑October meeting.
CME FedWatch shows a 79.5% probability of a steady rate in October, up from 75.6% a day earlier, and a 66.2% chance of a December 25‑basis‑point hike.
Market Reaction
Stock indices rallied, with the S&P 500 up 0.96%, the Dow up 0.61% and the Nasdaq up 1.63% as investors took comfort in the reduced hike risk.
